Nice Try, Tampa Bay

I'm still planning to recap a relatively successful White Sox 2008 season, but in the meantime, I have been rooting hard for the Rays to win the pennant (a) because I hate the Red Sox, and (b) because I hate the Wild Card and would love just once to see a World Series without any Wild Card teams in it.

But as I write this, the ALCS is all tied up at 3-3 with game 7 tomorrow night at Tropicana Field. In spite of the fact that Tampa Bay has the home field advantage for this 1 game to decide the AL pennant, I believe they are basically done for.

Like all Tampa Bay fans and a lot of other fans elsewhere, I was absolutely loving the butt-whupping the Rays were giving the Red Sox at Fenway this week. As game 5 rolled into the 7th inning, I was reveling in the idea of watching them frolic in front of all those Boston fans. In short, like the Rays and Joe Maddon, I was failing to rise to the occasion.

In retrospect, the sudden meltdown and inhuman Boston comeback was kind of inevitable. For 24 innings at Fenway, things had just been way too easy for the Rays. It was almost as if the equilibrium of the universe was dangerously out of sync, and what happened was a correction. This really was supposed to be a hard fought series going 7 games, and when TB had such an easy time of it at Fenway, they and we failed to realize that a healthy dose of paranoia was called for.

These are not your Father's Red Sox. They have an incredible mojo or something. I don't care if you're up 20-0, 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, Jason Varitek is down to his last strike: They never stop believing. Never.

I won't say that Maddon letting Balfour pitch to Papi in the 7th inning of game 5 was a mistake, but I will say that, looking back, that appears to be one of those moments where a little paranoia is called for. Balfour had pitched well in game 1, but not so much in game 2. He had not pitched since game 2. To go to him because he's been big for you all season long is not a bad way to look at it, but unfortunately there are moments in post-season where something more than competence is called for.

Joe Maddon said he wanted Balfour and Wheeler to get the final outs. A fair question emerges from the ashes of that debacle: Why, in a mix-and-match bullpen, do you suddenly say that 2 specific pitchers are destined to close out this game? There must have been a lefty in the bullpen to go to. Let him face Pedroia, OK. But Papi? These are the moments that call for greatness, not simply competence. I don't care how many times Balfour may have gotten him out during the season, this is the big prize, and these are the Red Sox. If you bring a lefty in and Papi still goes yard, then you throw up your hands and say it just wasn't meant to be. And then you regroup with a 3-run lead. Certainly if you weren't paranoid before, you become paranoid now.

But if you bring in Miller or Howell (who ended up coming in anyway) and they retire Papi, then you have a 7-1 lead after 7 and you've just dodged a major bullet and shortened the game down to 2 innings. You've blunted the momentum and given your bullpen more room to breathe in the 8th. More "Sweet Caroline" Red Sox fans (Boston Globe's Bob Ryan's name for bandwagon Boston fans) leave the park.

In short, especially with the Red Sox, when you get them down to the ground, you place your foot on their neck and press down hard, and you don't let up one iota until the game and series is over. Even as you crush their neck, you pay attention to their foot and make sure it can't try to kick you in the head.

Having failed to do that, having allowed the cat to get out of the bag so to speak, it was inevitable that Beckett would not have another meltdown like he did in game 2. It is also not surprising that the Rays' bats have gone silent again. And I don't believe the Rays players can block out of their mind the fact that this pennant is slipping away from them. Joe Maddon may not have been kicking himself on the flight back to Florida, but I predict on Monday he will be.

And that's the harsh cruelty of postseason: one misstep, even a very slight one, can make all the difference in the world, especially if you are playing a team of ruthless competitors.

Tomorrow night it is Jon Lester vs. Matt Garza, and if Tampa Bay is to prevail somehow, Garza will have to rise to the occasion like he's never had to do before. Jason Bartlett must develop nerves of steel overnight. Evan Longoria must make every AB count (he's grounded into at least 3 DP's this series). And Joe Maddon must be willing to be a little paranoid and think outside the box. A small dose of "what are they up to now" might just serve him well.

I don't believe Jon Lester is going to have another game like his game 3, either. And the Red Sox have their mojo working for them again. Somehow the Rays have to ramp up their game without succumbing to the pressure.

If they can do that, they will truly earn a high place in history. At this point, I'm betting against it. They still have my undying respect and I think they have the undying respect of the Red Sox and Yankees (if not their fans), regardless of what happens. But they are about to learn the harshest lesson of all: fail to keep the peddle to the metal right up to the bitter end, and your reward is a couch-side seat for the World Series and an offseason of "What-if" nightmares.