Monday, October 26, 2026

Is the Magic Gone, or Is There More Than One Kind of Magic in March?

I did, as usual, write up my annual travelogue (Last Hurrah), but since two of the tournaments I normally attend will transform considerably - and not without controversy - I wanted to do a deep dive on why I do this every year.

What Makes Arch Madness Magical?

Now that the Missouri Valley has seen fit to change the format of the conference tournaments by (1) bringing the women's tournament (currently known as Hoops In The Heartland) to the Enterprise Center and moving it up a week to combine it with the men's tournament, (2) excluding the 11th place team in both brackets, and most importantly (3) giving the top two teams in each bracket a bye to the semifinals, I'd like to explore the question of what makes Arch Madness in its 2026-and-before form so special.

It was the third change above that seemed to generate the most negative reaction among MVC fans, which suggests that these fans think the magic is in the standard, conventional bracket where some teams escape playing on Thursday - because the math requires it - but the only way to play in the semifinals is by winning in the quarterfinals. In other words, the 1 seed has to beat either the 8 or the 9 seed in order to play in the semifinals.

To be clear, I also think that it is bad form to give the 1 and 2 seeds a bye all the way to the semifinals. But my question is: is that the sole reason Arch Madness is magical? Is the new setup not magical in any way? I ask because I saw some comments to the effect that some have no intention of attending the tournament unless their team makes it to Sunday (or perhaps it was Saturday).

Apparently, there are some fans who will only think seriously about coming to the tournament if their team plays on Friday on a level field with everyone else, so they have to win the same number of games to reach Sunday as everyone else has to. In other words, a complete lack of favoritism in the bracket from Friday on is the inducement needed to get them to commit to coming to the tournament.

What I wonder is: how many fans come to Arch Madness to see the whole tournament, not just their own team? To be fair, not everyone is free to just automatically commit to the whole tournament. Coming at all represents a sacrifice of some sort, and they will make the sacrifice only if they think it is worth it. At the same time, this has often been an issue even with the traditional bracket at a neutral venue. There have always been fans who come only to games their team is playing in. This new bracket doesn't seem to change anything for those fans.

Of the fans who will refuse to come unless their team makes it to the semifinals or title game because of the new bracket, how many of them have ever attended all or almost all of the games at Arch Madness in the past? What percentage of the entire attendance for the event will that be? These are questions that fascinate me.

If you are like me, and you're lucky enough to not be encumbered by outside obligations, would you still scale back your attendance as a form of protest against the new bracket? I would not, but I can't speak for anyone else and how they should look at it. I anticipate still taking in the entire event in 2027 (with the possible exception of attending a send-off rally for my team). I don't like the 1 and 2 seeds getting a double bye, but I still look forward to gathering with a decent group of Valpo fans as I have in past years, and being able to see both women's and men's tournament game during the same week at the same venue.

There is more than one way to enjoy a tournament. Purely as an MVC fan, my favorite Arch Madness game remains a quarterfinal game from 2023 between Belmont and Indiana State. That game was magical to me, a Valpo fan.

What was magical about Arch Madness 2026?

I had more fun this year than in previous years interacting with fans from other teams. I was able to break the ice with some Bradley fans, who all made me feel respected as a Valpo fan. I was able to parlay with a couple of Bradley fans on Thursday night over that tense semifinal battle we had in 2025. And after an even more tense double OT quarterfinal this year, a couple of Bradley fans stopped me in the concourse and engaged me in a wonderful, fun conversation for at least a half hour (or at least it seemed that long). I felt like both myself and Valpo were respected on equal footing (and that has not always been my impression in the past). Needless to say, this year's Arch Madness was magical to me, and the magic for me had little to do with the structure of the bracket.

Part of the magic, no doubt, resulted from the increasingly good vibes around the Valpo fan base, more of whom showed up this year than in previous years - to say nothing of the team's performance in the tournament, of course. The Beacons were a few degrees horizontally in either direction (a half court buzzer beater at the Ford Center) from earning a 5 seed, which would have been unprecedented.

Obviously Drake fans loved seeing their team make it all the way to the semifinals. As a Valpo fan, I remember what that felt like in 2025. Of course, if we had been using the new bracket in 2026, Belmont and Bradley would have gotten double byes, Evansville would have been excluded, and Illinois State, Murray State, and UIC would have been playing in the opening round instead of getting byes. Drake would have faced Murray State instead of Belmont, and might have lost. But even if they had won, it probably would not have been as magical a game for them and their fans. They would have had to make it to Saturday to get their chance at Belmont (being the 9 seed puts them in line to play the 1 seed in the semifinals).

This won't affect someone like me, but there may well be some Drake fans who wouldn't be willing to show up until their Bulldogs make it to Saturday. From the conference's point of view, the only operative question is: what is the MVC going to do to convince those fans to show up earlier than Saturday? The onus is on the conference, and one possible conclusion is to not switch to a lopsided bracket in the first place. In 2017, the Horizon league did two colocated tournaments in 5 consecutive days at Joe Louis Arena with both tournaments using traditional brackets. It makes sense: no matter how you slice it, a total of 18 games are needed to end up with a men's champion and a women's champion. I believe the stated reason for the double-bye bracket is basically the same rationale used by the Horizon League after 2002 - increasing the chance of doing damage in March Madness.

Magic is possible, no matter what bracket is used. It just depends on where you find your magic, I guess. From the standpoint of MVC fans, it seems to me the operative question should be: am I going to see more magic or less? Is magic defined by the upset factor only? Or do you look for magic in well-played games in which the two teams are going at each other like a couple of heavyweight boxers going the full 15 rounds? Does that mean precision offense, a clean game, breathtaking 3 point shooting (Belmont - Indiana State, 2023) or a bloody, physical game that goes to double overtime (Valpo - Bradley, 2026). There have been games I have experienced where my attention was so completely captured that the outside world disappeared for a couple of hours, and only one of them involved two teams with a huge separation in seed numbers. In 1997, I was spell bound for two hours watching (on TV) Arizona beat Kentucky in overtime for the national title.  In 2005, #7 Oakland University knocked off #1 Oral Roberts in the Mid-Con title game, and I and another Valpo fan sat there in attendance mesmerized - hypnotized even - for the whole game. It wasn't necessarily a well-played game, but it was the opposite of boring. We were on pins and needles - and Valpo had been eliminated in the opening round.

It will be far from impossible to find magic in Arch Madness in 2027. Some fans may even discover the MVC women can play some exciting tournament basketball as well. And, of course, much fun can be had interacting with fans of other teams, as I mentioned above. In 2026, had we used the new bracket, Valpo's first game would have been against UNI. That would have been interesting. The winner would have probably played Illinois State in the 2nd round for the right to take on Bradley in the semifinals (though Indiana State might have given the Redbirds a run for their money and scored the upset, of course). I wonder who would have won Drake-Murray State or SIU-UIC? And maybe the fan interactions I experienced would have been different. But it wouldn't have killed the magic, just changed it.

I'm going to skip Hoops In The Heartland because for me anyway, there has never really been anything especially magical about the MVC Women's tournament, and now this tournament will be folded into Arch Madness starting in 2027. I don't think that tournament has ever been boring. There are at least a handful of teams who put on a good show every year. But I mostly am by myself and the extracurricular entertainment is nothing special.

What is magical about the Horizon League tournament? 

The main thing that is great about the HL tournament is the halftime entertainment. There's the professional Simon Says guy. There's the Pacers dunk fest tumbling team. There's the frisbee catching dog. These are always fun.

For me, getting to say hi to some friends I still keep in touch with is always special, including a few from Green Bay who I sit with every year. I am also privileged to know a couple of guys from The HoriZone Roundtable, which covers HL basketball better that most of the traditional media in the Horizon League's so-called "Major Cities". And if Oakland makes it to the semifinals, I try not to miss a chance to say hi to my friend Greg Kampe (their head coach). This is what makes it magical for me. My Green Bay friends have been going to their team's conference tournament every year going back to the 1990s, so they have been doing this even longer than I have.

Mind you, the HL has an even weirder - if more traditional - bracket than what the MVC will use in 2027. The event starts on a Tuesday night, with the 10 seed hosting the 11 seed in a play-in game. Then on Thursday night, #1 hosts the play-in winner, #2 hosts #9, #3 hosts #8, #4 hosts #7, and #5 hosts #6. The winners of those games head to the neutral site (Indianapolis in 2026, Noblesville - on the outskirts of Indianapolis - starting in 2027). The five remaining teams are reseeded, with #4 playing #5 in a semi-final play-in game on Sunday, and the winner of that game plays #1 on Monday, while #2 plays #3. The semi-final winners play for the title on Tuesday. Both men and women use the same bracket and meet up at the same neutral site with their final 5. I have to say, the MVC has a great track record in consistency compared to the wishy-washy HL, which has changed its format at least a half-dozen times since Valpo joined in 2007.

For me, the magic is in my familiarity with the teams and the friends I made from 2007-2017. But the tournament itself - the games I mean? How about this: teams that in the recent past have been perennial doormats have seriously contended for the title. Robert Morris joined in 2021, and struggled to compete, but in 2025 they won the tournament, after winning the regular season title. This year they were the 2 seed. Youngstown State has been a doormat for a long time in the Horizon League. They are the team RMU beat in the 2025 title game. That was their first conference championship game since 1998 when they got blown out by Valpo in the Mid-Con title game. They've only made the semifinals once or twice since them (their last semifinal loss was in 2023, and their coach at the time succeeded at Utah State and now coaches the UC Bearcats in the Big 12 starting in the 2026-2027 season). If Green Bay makes it to the semifinals, Doug Gottlieb might be worth the price of admission all by himself. Detroit Mercy has been a disaster since the Ray McCallum era, but this year they made it all the way to the championship game and almost prevailed. And I'm probably just getting started. The conference is not top-heavy any more. There are no bottom feeders.

Meanwhile, in 2022, Wright State handled Bryant in the First Four pretty easily. In 2023, NKU gave 1 seed Houston nightmares before finally succumbing. In 2024, Greg Kampe's Oakland Golden Grizzlies toppled Kentucky and almost took down ACC darling NC State. In 2025 Robert Morris led Alabama late in the 2nd half before losing. Last year, Wright State led Virginia by 5 at the half, trailed by 4 mid-way through the 2nd half, and ended up losing by 9. The Horizon League is once again not a pushover in March Madness, no matter who gets the auto-bid.

So, to sum up, the magic in the HL tournament has consisted of parity, halftime entertainment, and good friends. 

What is special about the First Four?

Let me count the ways it is special, perhaps even magical. Here too, a major change will be implemented starting in 2027. But through 2026, the play-in round has been completely hosted by the University of Dayton Arena.

There is some sentiment out there that the NCAA Tournament actually starts on Thursday with the round of 64, and that these 4 games in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday are beneath us. I want to state at the outset that I fundamentally disagree with such sentiments. No one is required, of course, to pay attention to the play-in round, but for those of us that do, these games absolutely are part of the tournament. That, as the kids like to say, is a hill I'll die on.

Anyway, I have now been to 10 First Fours (2015-2019, 2022-2026), and I can say the following:

  • Every year, without fail, UD Arena is at least about 3/4ths full, and a significant (though not major) portion are UD fans. It is true that in 2015 Dayton was one of the last four in and was part of the First Four so they got a home game in the tournament, but in all other years, I still saw bunches of UD fans at the event every other year I was there (when Dayton was not in the First Four).
  • The hotels in the area roll out the red carpet for the 8 teams coming in. A couple of times I've stayed in hotels which hosted two of the teams. I've seen the welcome when the team bus rolls up. I've seen the hallways and elevators plastered with framed highlights of each team's season.
  • Monday evening and Tuesday early afternoon, open practice is held and everyone is invited to attend for free. One year, the local news channel sent reporters and photographers to do a feature story for the nightly news.
  • There's at least one great (admittedly a bit pricey) restaurant on or near the campus that is really popular during the First Four and among First Four fans. I and some friends make it a point to go at least once each year.
  • Even if not every fan is on board with it, the First Four is treated like the beginning of the tournament in several important ways:
    • The NCAA tournament logos are everywhere on the court.
    • The official tournament program and official tournament merchandise (including the standard "Road to the Final Four" T-shirts) art sold at the event. The program covers the entire tournament and is the exact same one sold at every other tournament site all the way to the Final Four.
    • The broadcast (although shown on TruTV) is literally the same as the broadcast at every other site. The announces are the same ones who do pbp in the other rounds. Except for 2026, halftime included a snippet of the halftime show from the broadcast being shown on the jumbotron at the arena. It's the same halftime show involving the same people who man tournament HQ throughout the tournament.
    • During timeouts and halftimes, the scoreboard runs the same NCAA Tournament promos, trivia quizzes, contests, and ads as in every other round.
    • The 8 teams that play there are announced on Selection Sunday along with the other 60 as one group, known as the field of 68.
    • In short, every NCAA official and every media outlet involved in the First Four treats it like it is the beginning of the tournament.
    • In addition, if you've been to a 1st or 2nd round site, you would notice the same crowded concourses at the First Four that you experience at those other sites.

Needless to say, the University of Dayton and the Dayton community do an outstanding job of putting on this event every year. Certainly the at-large teams bring a significant amount of fans, and sometimes the autobids do as well. But the Dayton community itself attends this event. I can only assume they do because they love basketball more than anything and love the tournament and that they get to host 4 games.

Oh, and a story from this year: I sat next to a UD fan on Tuesday night who told me about why Dayton was playing their first round NIT game in Peoria at Bradley even though the Flyers were the higher seed. 7 years ago, they would have just rescheduled the game at UD arena for Thursday night after the First Four was over. However, in 2021, when the NCAA saw fit to move the First Four to the state of Indiana, the city of Dayton scrambled to fill the void, and the OHSAA reached out to ask if their boys high school basketball tournament could be held at UD arena during the time when the NCAA tournament was conducting it's first and second rounds. Of course UD Arena enthusiastically embraced the opportunity. Apparently the event was so successful that the OHSAA signed a 7-year contract to continue the event. So, the normal reschedule option wasn't available this year, and Dayton was forced to play a road game which they were supposed to host. Again, an avid UD fan tells me this as we're sitting together in UD Arena watching the First Four. He was not on the road to Peoria to follow his Flyers. He was enjoying the First Four.

What will the Play-in round look like in 2027? 

Next year, the field is expanding to 76, and the play-in round is expanding to 24 teams, with 12 being sent to Dayton and 12 being sent to Wichita, Kansas. All we know is that there will be 3 games at each site on Tuesday and 3 games at each site on Wednesday. We don't know if each night will be a single session, running continuously - which would alter typical plans to have dinner somewhere before the games - or if there will be one early afternoon game and two evening games with plenty of time in between sessions for dinner (concession stands are not exactly rife with quality dinner menus). Or maybe it will be some schedule I haven't thought of.

I will be interested to see if the Wichita community truly can put on as good an event as Dayton does, and whether the Wichita and Shockers communities will be as supportive as the Dayton and UD communities have been.

I'm also not sure what the breakdown of at-large teams and autobid teams will be starting next year, and when the start times will be for each play-in game. All I do know is that the Dayton officials who are in charge of putting on the event every year have stated that they are confident they will be able to continue their fine tradition in 2027 with 2 extra games to support. I personally am willing to take the chance that the event in Dayton next year will be just as magical as it has always been.

In conclusion

Even though things are changing for possibly questionable reasons, I think it is an exaggeration to say that Arch Madness or the NCAA Tournament has been ruined. I wasn't clamoring for these changes either. The traditional MVC bracket was just fine with me, and I was fine with 68 teams in the NCAA tournament. Solutions "in search of problems" always opens us up to making things worse rather than better. Or as the old saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." People deserve a chance to be convinced the "problem" being solved is real.

At the same time, I still think it will be possible to find true March magic and madness in 2027 and beyond.